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Drought Advisories |
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Dated: 16th January, 2010 Drought Advisory:
Emerging Drought conditions in the Country Most parts of the country are experiencing extremely dry conditions mainly due to the prevailing El-Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The El-Nino Conditions which developed in June, 2009, and suppressed Pakistan Monsoon rainfall by about 30%, are likely to continue till next summer. Since the end of monsoon season, which too was deficient, most parts of the country, except some areas of Central & North Balochistan, have not received any significant rainfall. Drought generally occurs in the following three stages.
(i) Meteorological Drought occurs when rainfall is below 40% of the expected rainfall in any area for an extended period. Most parts of the country are under severe Meteorological drought conditions because no appreciable rainfall has occurred during the last four months. (ii) Hydrological Drought occurs when there is a sustained deficit in surface runoff below normal conditions. The country is experiencing hydrological drought conditions because the availability of surface water in major reservoirs have aggravated due to 30% below normal rains during monsoon and persistent long dry spell afterwards. since temperatures in catchment areas have already reached at freezing level, so no significant improvements in the reservoirs is expected during coming weeks. Tarbela Dam: Water level in Tarbela is presently 131 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.994 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 9.30 m.a.f. Mangla Dam: Water level in Mangla is presently 128 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.4 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 4.82 m.a.f. Comparison at last 10 year's data indicates that water situation is similar to the drought year of 2002. Inflows in Rawal, Khanpur and Simly Dams are also diminishing that may lead to shortage in urban areas because the rainfall in catchment areas is likely to remain below normal. (iii) Agricultural Drought occurs when rainfall amount and distribution, soil water reserves and evaporation losses combine to start effecting crops. After crossing two stages of drought i.e. meteorological and hydrological drought the country is now entering the emerging agricultural drought stages. Barani areas of the country which are already experiencing crops failure, are under severe agricultural drought. In the face of diminishing irrigation water, irrigated plain areas are also likely to come under emerging agriculture drought condition. According to the prevailing meteorological conditions, the cold and dry weather conditions are likely to continue for another week and significantly below normal (30%) winter rains are predicted during the month of January and February in most parts of the country. In the present scenario of worsening drought condition in the country, judicious use of available water resources and efficient agriculture/irrigation practices are advised.
(Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry) Director General, PMD |
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2nd January, 2010 Drought Advisory Below normal rains predicted during January-February 2010
Severe moisture stress for Rabi Crops and Water scarcity continue
Met Office predicted significantly below normal winter rains during the month of January and February in most parts of the country. Due to abnormal dry weather conditions, the rabi crops especially in barani areas, would remain under server moisture stress, and the water scarcity in urban areas may further be aggravated.
Spokesman of Met Office informed that a high pressure area due to El-Nino conditions is prevailing over Pakistan since November 2009, and it is blocking the winter rains for the country. The current El-Nino conditions that started in June, 2009 and suppressed monsoon rains in Pakistan, are still continuing and expected to last till spring 2010. Expected El Niño impacts during current winter include suppressed winter precipitation over Pakistan. Under these regional and global meteorological parameters, significantly below normal winter rains, ranging from 20-30%, are expected in Pakistan during January-February 2010.
Due to low rainfall during last monsoon season, Pakistan was already experiencing water scarcity that has further aggravated during the current winter. During current winter, the snowfall over northern areas, Kashmir and Galliyat (a natural resource of water runoff during dry summer months) remained well below normal so far, and the water shortage therefore may further be aggravated during the coming months. The concerned authorities are requested to consider this weather outlook regarding water management, in particular to mitigate the shortage of water availability during the coming months.
During the month of December 2009, 37% below normal winter rain reported from major agricultural areas of country & catchment areas of reservoirs except in Balochistan that received good rains(http://www.pakmet.com.pk/drought/index_files/Page5321.htm)
Rainfall during Dec, 2009: Balochistan = 78% above normal rainfall Punjab = 96% below normal Kashmir = 12% below normal NWFP = 58% below normal Sindh = 43% below normal Islamabad = 100% below normal
Islamabad, the 26th December 2009
The current winter is going abnormally dry in the country except in northern Balochistan including Quetta, Ziarat, Kalat and Khuzdar areas where some good rains have been recorded during last two weeks. Due to prolonged dry conditions, Rabi Crops in Barani Areas of Punjab are under moderate to severe moisture stress and water scarcity is emerging in the urban areas.
Hydrological Drought: The availability of surface water in major reservoirs have aggravated due to 30% below normal rains during monsoon and persistent long dry spell afterwards. Since temperatures in catchment areas of Tarbela & Mangla have already reached at freezing level, so no significant improvements in these reservoirs is expected during coming weeks.
Inflows in Rawal, Khanpur and Simly Dams are also diminishing that may lead to shortage in urban areas because no appreciable rainfall likely in catchment areas during next two weeks.
Outlook for next two weeks Due to the prevailing global & regional meteorological conditions, a high pressure area is prevailing over Pakistan, and is blocking the winter rains for the country. Therefore the cold and dry weather conditions are likely to continue and no significant rains are expected in the country till the next two weeks.
The blocking high pressure area is likely to subside gradually during first week of January 2010, and then gradually some winter rainfall activity may pick up. Some winter rains are predicted during the month of January. However, no significant improvement in water availability is expected in coming weeks.
Better water management by the concerned agencies during the last two months have helped to ease out the water crises to a manageable level, still we are likely to face more than 40% shortfall for rabi crops.
Sd/- (ARIF MAHMOOD) Chief Meteorologist
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Dated: 25th January, 2010 Drought Advisory: UPDATE
Scattered Winter Rain on 28th & 29th Predicted: MET OFFICE Expected to help in alleviating the drought conditions. First Winter Rain in upper parts of the country is expected on 28th & 29th January, 2010 after about 4-month of dry period. A westerly weather system is expected to approach Balochistan on 27th and after giving some scattered rainfall in Balochistan it would extend to other upper parts of the country including upper parts of Punjab and Islamabad.
Kashmir and Northern areas are also expected to receive rainfall/ snowfall during the above mentioned period.
These rains are expected, to some extent, help in alleviating the emerging drought conditions and in improving the dense fog conditions in Punjab.
As far as the El-Nino phenomena, in Pacific Ocean, suppressing our rainfall is concerned, it after reaching a peak is now expected to decrease gradually and neutralize sometime in early summer.
The winter rains in the country, as predicated earlier, are expected to remain about 30% below normal. Judicious use of available water resources is emphasized. |
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16th March 2010
No significant rainfall likely during coming weeks
The country is experiencing hydrological drought conditions because the availability of surface water in major reservoirs have severely aggravated due to 40% below normal rains during current winter (Jan-mid March 2010). Temperatures in catchments areas are increasing that may result in slight increase in inflows, however no well marked rainfall system is insight and no significant improvements in the reservoirs is expected during coming weeks.
Judicious use of available resource is requested to all stakeholders. |
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16th April 2010
Scattered Rain/Dust-storms predicted in the country during coming days Wheat farmers are advised to remain cautious about their Crops
Met-Office predicted scattered rains accompanied by gusty winds and dust-storms in parts of the country during the coming days, and the wheat farmers are therefore advised to remain cautions about their crop, which is already in the harvesting stage in most irrigated and barani areas of the country. Met-Office informed that some unusual weather systems of weak to moderate intensity are expected to pass through Pakistan from coming weekend. Under the influence of these weather systems, rain/dust-thundershowers accompanied by gusty/dust-raising winds are predicted at scattered places of Punjab, NWFP, Kashmir, Islamabad, and at isolated places of northern Balochistan and Upper Sindh from 18th – 22nd April. The farmers are advised to remain cautions about their crops due to predicted wet-weather condition accompanied by gusty winds/dust-storms in the irrigated and barani areas of the country during the coming week. Due to frequent cloudiness and precipitation over northern areas, the day temperatures the normally trigger snow-melt in the month of April are expected to remain below normal during the coming week. |
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3rd May, 2010
More Rain/Dust-thunderstorms predicted in the country during current Decade
A westerly rain bearing system presently giving rain over Iran, is heading towards Pakistan and likely to approach upper parts of the country from Tuesday. Due to influence of this westerly wave, more rain with dust-thunderstorms is predicted in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa, North Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir from 4th May to 7th May.
Farmers are advised to adopt necessary measures to avoid / minimize post harvest losses associated with weather system. |
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1st July, 2010 OUTLOOK: Monsoon 2010
Meteorological data revealed that the current El-Nino phenomenon that developed in June 2009 and suppressed the last monsoon rainfall in Pakistan is in decaying stage, and the tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) are likely to become neutral during mid of 2010. According to current meteorological conditions, it seems that a normal monsoon season is expected during this year (Jun – Sep).
Pakistan Meteorological Department preliminary estimated forecast for the monsoon 2010 (Jun – Aug) is that he rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be Normal. However, the probability of occurrence of some extreme events over Upper Punjab, Lower Sindh and Kashmir is VERY LIKELY during the period (Jun – Aug) that may lead abnormally excess rainfall over there.
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